A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
